The Nigerian government has reportedly entered into a secret ceasefire agreement with the Boko Haram faction led by Bakura Doro, a development that has kept parts of northeastern Nigeria relatively calm for the past three months, according to a report by The New Humanitarian.
There are currently about three factions of Jama’atu Ahlis-Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad (JAS), also known as Boko Haram.
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PREMIUM TIMES reports that the factions, spread across the North-east and North-central Nigeria, are believed to be loyal to Mr Doro, who succeeded Abubakar Shekau, who was killed in a 2021 infighting with rival Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP).
Two of the factions are believed to be based in the North-east and led by Ali Ngulde and Alhai Kale, while the one in the North-central is led by Mallam Sadiku.
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Mr Doro is believed to be currently based in Lake Chad island, taking advantage of the weak security presence in the area to deeply entrench himself there.
Inside the report
Three people with contacts among senior Boko Haram members, told The New Humanitarian that the truce has been in effect since June and is expected to be extended. It was linked to efforts to secure the release of over 300 civilians abducted in March from Ngoshe, a community in Gwoza Local Government Area of Borno State.
After spending about 95 days in captivity, the victims were released following what the government described as an intelligence-led operation by a combined force of Operation Hadin Kai, a joint task force in the North-east, and the State Security Service (SSS).
However, The New Humanitarian reports that the hostages were freed in June after negotiations involving government representatives, intermediaries and the insurgents. Sources cited by the publication said the agreement also included a ransom payment of N5 billion, a report the government has denied.
Samaila Kaigama, a youth leader in Borno, was the first to allege that the government paid ransom to free the Ngoshe captives. During an interview on Channels TV in July, Mr Kaigama alleged that a N5 billion ransom was paid. He linked Ali Ndume, a senator representing Borno South, to the ransom facilitation. However, the senator rejected the claim.
Mr Kaigama has since been arrested by SSS and arraigned in court. The SSS said it has found evidence linking him to the extortion of families of kidnap victims, an allegation first made by Mr Ndume while clarifying his position on Channels TV.
A recent report by the SBM Intelligence also stated that a N5 billion ransom was paid for the release of the Ngoshe captives.
The Nigerian authorities have consistently maintained a policy against paying ransoms to terrorist groups, but on several occasions, critics accused them of violating this policy.
The report by The New Humanitarian stated that the ceasefire has significantly reduced attacks attributed to the Bakura Doro faction since June, while humanitarian workers and residents have observed an unusual lull in violence across parts of Borno State.
However, the publication noted that the truce does not extend to the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), which remains active and continues to launch attacks against military positions and civilian communities in the Lake Chad region.
Officials familiar with the negotiations told the publication that discussions were driven by both humanitarian concerns and the government’s desire to explore dialogue as a possible pathway to reducing violence after more than 16 years of insurgency.
The federal government has not publicly acknowledged the existence of the ceasefire.
When contacted, presidential spokesperson Bayo Onanuga, in a text, told PREMIUM TIMES to contact the Ministry of Defence or the Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA).
The spokesperson for Defence Headquarters, Samaila Uba, did not respond to calls. A message sent to him has not been responded to. A similar message sent to an NSA spokesperson was also not responded to.
Analysts quoted in the publication warned that while temporary truces can save lives and facilitate hostage releases, they also risk allowing insurgent groups to regroup unless accompanied by broader peacebuilding efforts and accountability measures.
“It could be just a temporary, tactical ceasefire that benefits both sides, but doesn’t really affect the trajectory of the war,” Malik Samuel, a conflict researcher at the Good Governance Africa (GGA), said.
Mr Samuel expressed doubts that such a truce could lead to a “sustainable peace settlement.”
The report described the ceasefire as one of the most significant known attempts at dialogue between the Nigerian government and Boko Haram in recent years, but noted that its long-term sustainability remains uncertain given the fragmented nature of insurgent groups operating in the North-east.
The counterterrorism approach
In recent years, the Nigerian government has prioritised what it described as “non-kinetic” initiatives as part of its counterterrorism strategies.
The approach mostly involves state-backed dialogue with terror groups across the country.
In Katsina State, more than 18 local governments have entered into a truce with local terrorists commonly referred to as bandits.
In Kaduna and Zamfara states, some local governments have also adopted this approach.
These local peace deals, brokered by local council chairpersons and held in the presence of military operatives, temporarily halted attacks in exchange for reasonable demands by the terrorists.
READ ALSO: Soldiers foil terror attack in Borno, recover weapons — Official
At a security briefing last week, our reporter asked military authorities to explain the framework for the current non-kinetic initiatives currently ongoing and what they are likely to change based on their assessments and public outcry. Mr Uba, the Defence spokesperson, said the military does not directly engage in these deals.
“We do not also support the payment of any ransom,” he responded. “The major job of the military is kinetic (combat) operations.”
“But it is also this whole-of-society, whole of nation approach to resolving security issues,” Mr Uba continued…”So, where we need to support other stakeholders in conducting non-kinetic actions, we participate fully without compromising the things.”
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