Akwa Ibom, Rivers excluded from post-subsidy fiscal assessment because of missing data

Akwa Ibom and Rivers states have been excluded from a major assessment of how Nigerian states managed the financial gains of the post-subsidy era because they failed to publish complete budget implementation records, limiting independent assessment of billions of naira in public funds.

The two oil-producing states were omitted from BudgIT’s latest report, “Nigeria’s Reforms: What Has Changed Across Nigeria’s States? An Analysis of State Finances in the Post-Subsidy Years,” which examined changes in states’ revenues and expenditure priorities between 2022 and 2025.

The report assessed revenue growth, personnel costs, overheads, capital expenditure and spending on critical sectors including education, health, infrastructure and administration.

But while the finances of 34 states were subjected to comparative analysis, Akwa Ibom and Rivers were left out because they did not have complete Quarter One to Quarter Four (Q1-Q4) Budget Implementation Reports (BIRs) publicly available for the period under review.

The omission is notable because BudgIT based its analysis on actual revenues received and expenditure incurred, rather than approved budgets, which only indicate what governments plan to receive and spend.

Consequently, the absence of the two states’ complete fiscal records means their financial performance during a period of unprecedented increases in federal allocations cannot be compared with those of other states.

States’ revenues surged after subsidy removal

BudgIT found that aggregate revenue among the 34 states included in the study increased from N4.840 trillion in 2022 to N15.526 trillion in 2025, representing a nominal growth of 220.76 per cent.

Aggregate FAAC allocations rose from N3.427 trillion to N11.378 trillion during the period, an increase of 232.06 per cent, while internally generated revenue grew from N1.565 trillion to N4.147 trillion, representing a 165.01 per cent increase.

BudgIT attributed the growth mostly to increased federal transfers, currency devaluation, improved tax collection and higher oil revenues.

The report was designed to answer the question: as states received substantially more money after the removal of the petrol subsidy, what has changed in how they spent it?

But that question cannot be answered for Akwa Ibom and Rivers using the same methodology because of gaps in their publicly available fiscal records.

‘Critical analysis will not happen’

When contacted, BudgIT’s Country Director in Nigeria, Vahyala Kwaga, told PREMIUM TIMES that the exclusion had serious implications for public accountability.

“It means that critical measurement and analysis of those states will not happen. It means that a view of their financial situation will not happen. It also means that citizens are left with very little with which to ask questions.”

He said BudgIT wants Rivers State to resume regular publication of its BIRs and also make its Accountant-General’s reports available to the public.

According to him, the political conflict between the legislature and executive in Rivers State contributed to a situation in which important fiscal documents were not prepared or made available to the public.

Yet, BudgIT’s concern with Akwa Ibom is different.

Mr Kwaga said the organisation was concerned that Akwa Ibom, which previously produced comparatively detailed fiscal reports, had regressed in its level of disclosure.

“For Akwa Ibom, BudgIT notes with regret that a state that once produced comparatively detailed reporting simply stopped doing so for no justifiable reason,” he said.

He said the reduction in the size and detail of the state’s reports shows how quickly fiscal transparency could deteriorate.

According to him, Akwa Ibom’s BIRs previously ran to more than 20 pages but have since been reduced to no more than five pages in some instances.

BudgIT called on the Akwa Ibom State Government to return to regular publication of detailed fiscal reports.

Akwa Ibom says reports are too detailed

The Akwa Ibom State Government, however, defended its decision to publish more concise budget performance reports.

The Commissioner for Budget and Economic Planning, Linus Nkan, whose ministry is responsible for budget performance reporting, told PREMIUM TIMES that the state deliberately simplified the reports to make them easier for citizens to understand.

“What we publish is more concise and easy to understand,” Mr Nkan said.

He argued that some information contained in detailed BIRs could become unwieldy and that some expenditure figures represent work that is still ongoing.

“Some information may become too bogus. Some of this information is ongoing and work in progress. When the year is completed, we publish the audited account. There you will see everything about what the state has received and done,” he said.

The commissioner described BIRs as interim documents.

“Those BIRs are interim reports and for me, they are simply in pieces,” he said.

His explanation, however, raises another question: whether interim reporting can be sufficiently detailed like other 34 states of the federation to enable citizens to track expenditure as it occurs, rather than waiting until six months after the end of the financial year for audited accounts.

This issue is important because budget implementation reports are not designed merely to provide a final account of government finances. They provide periodic information on actual revenue and expenditure during the year, allowing citizens, legislators, civil society organisations and researchers to monitor implementation while projects and programmes are ongoing.

Commissioner unable to explain reporting shift

PREMIUM TIMES also questioned Mr Nkan about the change in reporting practice under the administrations in which he served.

The newspaper pointed out that the Akwa Ibom Government, including the administration of the immediate past governor, Udom Emmanuel, under which Mr Nkan served as Commissioner for Finance, and the early period of Governor Umo Eno’s administration, had published more detailed BPRs from the third quarter of 2023 through the fourth quarter of 2024.

The newspaper also noted that the state’s recently published audited financial statements have not provided the level of detail on capital expenditure that would allow citizens to easily reconcile the state’s huge revenue with capital spending.

Asked why the state moved from publishing detailed reports to more concise documents, Mr Nkan said he would clarify the issue when he had the opportunity to sit down with the PREMIUM TIMES reporter and explain it.

He, however, did not subsequently fix a date for such a meeting.

Akwa Ibom’s fiscal disclosure raises more questions

The exclusion from the BudgIT study follows growing concerns over Akwa Ibom’s fiscal transparency.

PREMIUM TIMES has repeatedly reported the state’s failure to publish comprehensive budget performance reports, particularly from the first quarter of 2025 through the second quarter of 2026.

The newspaper has also reported that the state, under Mr Eno, has become less transparent in the publication of fiscal information despite the substantial increase in revenue available to the government.

BudgIT and civil society organisations in the state have separately raised concerns over the missing or inadequate fiscal documents.

The development is particularly notable given that Akwa Ibom has received much more public revenue under Mr Eno.

PREMIUM TIMES’ analysis of available records showed that the state received N2.934 trillion in revenue over the first 38 months of the administration.

Yet the absence of comprehensive implementation reports makes it difficult for independent analysts and citizens to establish, from publicly available documents, if all the revenue sources of government were remitted to the state purse and how much of that money was spent, when it was spent and on which projects and programmes.

Rivers’ fiscal records affected by political crisis

Rivers State presents a different but equally consequential case.

The state has been embroiled in a prolonged political crisis involving the executive and legislature, including the declaration of a state of emergency in March 2025.

The crisis disrupted the state’s budgetary process and was followed by prolonged controversy over legislative approvals and the state’s finances.

Although Governor Siminalayi Fubara later returned to office following the end of the emergency rule, concerns over the state’s fiscal reporting persisted.

Rivers had not published complete BIRs for 2025 at the time BudgIT conducted its analysis, leaving the state outside the comparative assessment.

BudgIT’s call for Rivers to publish beyond its BIRs but also the Accountant-General’s report highlights the concern that citizens cannot adequately assess the state’s financial position without access to complete fiscal records.

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Missing data creates an accountability gap

BudgIT said its study relied exclusively on actual Q1-Q4 implementation reports for 2022 and 2025 because approved budgets do not show what governments actually received or spent.

It extracted expenditure data from the Total Expenditure by Administrative Classification section of the BIRs to ensure that spending could be compared consistently across states.

The methodology means that the exclusion of Akwa Ibom and Rivers was not a discretionary decision by BudgIT but a consequence of the states’ failure to provide the data required for the analysis.

This has resulted in an unusual accountability gap at a time when states are receiving higher federal allocations following the removal of petrol subsidy but citizens in two major oil-producing states are unable to see how their governments compare with their counterparts in managing those resources.

In Akwa Ibom, the explanation that BIRs are interim reports and that fuller information will eventually appear in audited accounts has yet to resolve the transparency question raised by BudgIT.

Periodic implementation reports serve a different accountability purpose from audited accounts since they allow citizens to monitor government spending while the financial year and projects are still underway.

For Rivers, the political crisis provides context for the reporting gaps, but it does not eliminate the need for the state to restore regular fiscal disclosure.

The Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Information, Honour Sirawoo did not respond to PREMIUM TIMES’ media enquiry on why the state is still yet to publish its BIR and when it will publish the documents.

And for both states, BudgIT’s exclusion has produced a consequence that goes beyond missing statistics: independent review of their finances has been weakened because the information required to conduct it is unavailable.

That, Mr Kwaga said, leaves citizens with fewer tools to ask government the most basic questions about public money.

For citizens, that means that at a time when subnational governments in Nigeria are receiving more money than ever, the ability to independently follow where the money goes remains weaker in Akwa Ibom and Rivers than in the 34 states whose finances BudgIT was able to analyse.